John Edwards may have endorsed the big O but when he campaigns with Obama in Kentucky the boys will be ganging up on the Fighter. So he STILL loses. Even so, all the big dems and elite guilt ridden liberals who want to prove their liberal bone fides will make Obama their nominee. He wins the nomination by the skin of his teeth.
My partner Marilyn is so pissed off at the Edwards endorsement, she came up with a brilliant idea...here I play it out in a possible scenario:
Obama offers to toss Hill some cash to cover her debt. She takes it (if she’s smart). Then he spurns her for the Veep position.
On July 4th, in a stunning move, she bolts from the party. Having made a back door deal with a moderate Republican Governor, she announces she’s running as an independent.
Here’s the calculus: She runs to the middle.
• She owns the white middle class vote.
• She owns the senior vote -- and damn it they vote even on their death bed.
• She’s got women in even tighter now, because they really admire her gutsy, controversial move to stick it to the boys.
• She collects Hispanics like a magnet.
• She cedes the black and elite liberals to Obama.
• But her audacious action impresses independent minded Republicans who are damned sick of Bush but wary of Obama (remember I have been talking to members of this demographic for a while). They look at her twice. And now she has a Republican Guv at her side – so she’s safer.
But which Republican Guv? (Remember they’re taking a risk, but what chance have they got at a shot at the big time, and incredible celebrity? It will give them at least an $8 Million book deal...)
Governor Dave Heinemen of Nebraska – he’s green, focused on education and technology. But he’s also into trade – doing a deal with Cuba. That would annoy Florida Cubans. And could be risky. But he’s from the West and could well carry the heartland for her.
Or perhaps in a move to create the Dynamic Deuce she pairs up with Jodi Rell of Connecticut. She’s suing the Bush administration on No Child Left Behind AND she’s tough on law and order. But she’s East Coast and a woman which would be risky.
Or in a wild card match up she shmoozes Governor Blunt of Missouri, a smart young up and comer with a strong Military background and strong healthcare and education resume.
Or she finds some suitable globally respected former Republican -- Governor Kean?
Beyond, fame, notoriety and a great book deal, why would these guys defect and go with her? They would anger their party forever, BUT, they’d have a real shot, because, she with a Republican governor would have a real shot. She could easily carry all the big states she carried in the primaries. AND she’d win Ohio and Florida with ease. (AND with the exception of Rell, I can't imagine them on the McCain shortlist.)
And what about all the blah blah about keeping the party together? Well, she's changed her mind, the stakes are too high, her competitors too weak, she loves America too much. McCain is too old and explosive and unsuited. Obama is too inexperienced and naive.
The pundits go whacky coo coo, ok they go just plain APESHIT, pounding their bosoms and tsk tsking: "Goodness Gracious! She's tearing the country apart!!!!" But they eat up the ratings. And low, as an independent she makes the case that now she truly can get the country united.
Here’s the calculus – you need 270 electoral collage votes to win:
Three Way Race: Obama, McCain and Clinton as Independent with Republican VEEP
270 Electoral College Votes to Win: How Clinton Wins: Splitting the Boys in Two
Clinton 281
Obama 146
McCain 111
STATE VOTES CANDIDATE
AK 3 McCain
AL 9 Obama
AR 6 Clinton
AZ 10 McCain
CA 55 Clinton
CO 9 Obama
CT 7 Clinton
DC 3 Obama
DE 3 Clinton
FL 27 Clinton
GA 15 Obama
HI 4 Obama
IA 7 Obama
ID 4 McCain
IL 21 Obama
IN 11 Clinton
KS 6 Clinton
KY 8 Clinton
LA 9 Obama
MA 12 Obama
MD 19 McCain
ME 4 Obama
MI 17 Clinton
MN 10 Clinton
MO 11 Clinton
MS 6 Obama
NC 15 Obama
ND 3 McCain
NE 5 Clinton
NH 4 Clinton
NJ 15 Clinton
NM 5 McCain
NV 5 Clinton
MT 4 Clinton
NY 31 Clinton
OH 20 Clinton
OK 7 McCain
OR 7 Obama
PA 21 McCain
RI 4 Clinton
SC 8 Obama
SD 3 Clinton
TN 11 Clinton
TX 34 McCain
UT 5 McCain
VA 13 Clinton
VT 3 Obama
WA 4 Obama
WI 10 Obama
WV 5 Clinton
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Hillary Clinton Announces Independent Run -- Chooses Republican Guv as Veep!
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I sure would love to see this happen. Go Hillary!
I am all for the idea. Hillary all the way....
Brilliant. My calculations are a bit less optimistic, but still sees her win, not with the 270, but with Obama in third place...then again you give her a Rep running mate which does make more sense and that could steal McCain's vote. Great idea...
I would love to see this happen, although I don't think she needs to choose a republican gov as her running mate. OH and PA have two strong dem govs that could deliver her those states.
Wow! I sure like your idea have you e-mailed a lik to your blog to her camp?, if she does what you suggesting she's got my money and my support we are several people here at the office on her side already, ALL women! and few guys. Please send it to her.
Suck a fuckin Dick
Thanks for all the civil comments! I have kept my blog wide open to encourage everyone to comment. And while I'd prefer that everyone identify themselves; to encourage EVERYONE to participate, I have made anonymous comments welcome. Civility and thoughtful discourse is the only requirement. If you are really angered by what you see here then pose your argument and please do so thoughtfully and with vigor. I want to hear it! But comments such as the one left on May 26 are shallow and insulting to those of us who care deeply about the democratic process.
If she does that it will be the end of her political career and an injustice to New York, a state she represents.
So I say , DO IT Hillary.
Obama '08
It is possible that her career might be over. It is an audacious risk.BUT on the other hand Leiberman did it in Connecticut and Obama right now has really no chance of winning the general anyway. She has a damn good chance of pulling it off.
I know alot of people that didn't vote on super T-day, because they thought she had it locked up and there was no need to vote, I think that is how Obama pulled off super T-day! I hope she does run as an independent if not getting the dem. nomination. She has my vote, major campaigning support, money, whatever she needs. She is the only one that can turn this great nation back to what it was and can be again.
I Hope and pray that she does. I think people are finally seeing how bad BO will be. Lets forget the DNC and show CNN, FOX, MSNBC that no matter how much they want BO to win, we will not stand for it.
I've been musing over an Independent run by Clinton for awhile now. I think she should do it, not to play spoiler, but to win it.
However, I think it is much more likely that in such a 3-way race a majority (270) of EVs would not be achieved by any candidate. I see Clinton garnering the most EVs, with McCain in second (possibly a very close second) and Obama a well-beaten third. This would throw things over to the Dem.-controlled House to decide, and they would elect Clinton -- how could they do anything else?
The DNC bailed on Hillary Saturday. How can they steal her votes and give Obama John Edwards votes?? Are you kidding me? Hillary should now bail on the Dems and run as an independent.
Go Hillary!!
I'm an independent voter who normally votes republican as a general pattern. This election, I plan to either vote for Hillary (if she runs as independent) or write-in her name.
I think her running as an independent or a large amount of people doing a write-in of her name will either spawn a 3rd party based on moderate thinking or, at a minimum, send a message to the DNC and GOP that we're fet up with their quest for power. The American people are starting to rise up against the entrenched powers that be and are taking back America for the people. Hillary is just the beginning.
Great ideas........Go Hillary!
Looking at your state electoral list, I see NY twice and no MT
Error noted, THANKS! Adjustments made...she still could take it. BUT I am now seeing that she is an inside party player like no other. It looks like she'll step aside tonight. ARRRGH!
It's an interesting day to say the least. There's so much going on behind the scenes... if we only knew. The stage is set though for that Independent run announcement--- Obama is now the ultimate insider Dem. establishment candidate--- Clinton is the outsider, the insurgent.
It must be such a frustrating feeling of helplessness for her to know without a doubt that she can beat McCain and Obama cannot.
or maybe she's not conceding...this is getting more interesting by the minute!
Come on folks...there is too much at stake not to support the Democratic nominee. Keep in mind that Hillary's strengths in the primaries were among Democrats, not the general electorate. If she ran as an independent she may get the votes of 30% of Democrats (or former Democrats) and a few independents, but that's about it.
All the polling indicates that Obama can defeat McCain.
I'm all for Hillary as our next president!! Any way she needs to take to get there I will support her. I know my family and friends all feel the same way. The only vote I will not give Hillary is the one for vice president. In doing that I would be forced to vote for Obama and I will not do that under any circumstance.
I say go for it Hillary.
Seriously, are Clinton supporter's retarded, or what? Lets really think about this.... Hillary breaks off from the Dem party, chooses a Rep running mate, and runs as an independent.... and wins????
I don't think so. First of all, if she breaks off from the democratic party, she alienates the entire party, beyond her most ardent supporters, and loses at least 60% of her Dem support. Please remember that only about 30% of Clinton supporters claim that they wouldn't vote Obama. Second, if she picks up a republican VP, she further alienates the Dem party, and gains little from Republicans (trust me, less than 5% of all republicans would be willing to vote Clinton, under any circumstances). Third, she has no funds, and, running as an independent, will not be able to raise enough money to pose any type of threat. Fourth, she lost the Dem nomination. I undertsand that there are crazy ways to spin things mathematically,and you can argue for FL and MI, where Obama didnt campaign and wasn't on the ballot, but, in the total of all fairly run primaries, and even with the FL and MI compromise, he won. More democrats support Obama, and he won the Democratic endorsement. That might not mean anything to you, but to most Democrats, many Clinton supporters included, it means it means he's their guy.
Now, if you want to go off of the primaries, and rely on those numbers to come up with all of these zany figures to project Clinton as the winner, then so be it. In fact, I would expect nothing less from Clinton and supporters, as it is ridiculous and illogical. However, don't state things like facts, because that isnt what this is. This is a desperate attempt by sore losers to find a shred of hope.
The truth is, if Hillary did run Independent, she would surely take 3rd. And she would surely eat into some of Obama's votes. And we would end up with President McCain, send more troops to Iraq, invade Iran, and further destabilize the economy. In your ignorance though, you might even enjoy that, because most of the hardcore Clinton supporters are so bitter about the primary that, like a group of young children, they only want to see the person that beat them lose.
I love Hiliary Clinton, but since she does not have enough electrical votes by the Democratic party I am hoping she decides to jumps ship and run as an Independent. If she does not, I have no other choice than to vote Republican for Mr. McCain. He might be an older candidate, but he definitely would be wiser because he has EXPERIENCE.
38 Year Old Female from Michigan
Obama did nothing he promised to do here in Illinois. And McClain is another Bush and nothing more. I beleive Hillary could win if she were to go Independent.
Hillary should not endorse Obama she should ask her backers to continue their spport of her as an independent.
I hope she will run as an independent candidate because she loves America too much to let McCain (too old and explosive and unsuited) or Obama (too inexperienced and naive) to leas the country now. I hope she will run as an independent and win the election to show the Media and the DNC that American don't buy on their spam about how good Obama is. American believe in her leadership and show the Media and DNC how fool they are to pick Obama
I don't support Hillary (or any candidate at this point), but I absolutely think she should run independent.
1. If she and her supporters (of whom there are many no matter what non-Hillary Dem supporters say) truly believe that she is the best candidate for POTUS in this election cycle, she has a moral duty as an American, to her country to run. Remember, it worked for Lieberman.
2. American voters deserve to have more than 2 "popular party" candidates on the ballot (sorry Nader with only 5 percent doesn't really count. Perot with 19 percent, that's getting a little closer to what I mean) for EVERY election for ANY elected office.
3. Remember what Jefferson said would happen to this nation if 2 parties gained "control". Well, hasn't that already happened?
Hillary doesn't need the Democratic Party to be a formidable opponent. She needs to stay in.
Yes - HRC as an independent. But George Clooney as VP. There is a winning ticket.
TO THE PERSON WHO SAID THAT HILLARY RUNNING AS AN INDIE WOULD SPLIT THE DEM PARTY..WAKE UP STUPID THE PARTY IS ALREADY SPLIT.
HILLARY STOP WORRYING ABOUT PAYING OFF YOUR DEBTS AND BEGIN TO SHOW HOW GREAT A PERSON YOU REALLY ARE..OF COURSE ONLY IF YOU REALLY BELIEVE DO IN YOURSELF AND YOUR COUNTRY. GET ON THAT TICKET NOW YOU MIGHT BE THE ONLY
CHANCE WE HAVE.
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